PICK'EM
Crouch Development Labs · 2026 Season
Live database

Every pick. Locked in public. Receipts all season.

Bryan vs. the model vs. leading national NFL experts. Straight-up picks, transparent methodology, weekly commentary, and a running measurement of exactly how much Cowboys fandom costs.

Bryan
39-38
Season through Week 6
Model
49-29
Season through Week 6
National Experts
58-34
Leading CBS Sports expert · straight-up
Week 6
14/14
Bryan picks locked
Bryan's Take · Week 6
“Week 6 is locked, and this card ended up being a little more aggressive than I expected. There are a handful of teams I’m comfortable riding with this week. Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Buffalo, the Rams and San Francisco all made the cut without a ton of internal debate. I also like Denver at home against Seattle and New England against the Jets. The more interesting part of this week is where I’m willing to go against what probably feels like the safer public pick. I’m taking Houston over Jacksonville, New Orleans over the Giants, Carolina to go into Philadelphia and win, and Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay. Those are the games that will probably determine whether this ends up being a great week or one where I’m staring at the board Sunday night wondering what I was thinking. And then, of course, there’s Dallas. The Cowboys are 2-3, they just lost to Tampa Bay, and the model is taking Green Bay. I’m still taking Dallas. That is exactly why I built the Cowboys Bias part of this experiment in the first place. I know I’m capable of talking myself into the Cowboys when the numbers say otherwise, so rather than pretending that bias doesn’t exist, we’re putting a scoreboard on it. If Dallas goes into Green Bay and wins, I’ll happily take the receipt. If they lose, Homer Tax gets another data point. Fourteen games are published. No changing the story after the fact. Now we see what happens.”
Bryan Crouch · Picks publish before kickoff
Integrity rule
NO HINDSIGHT EDITS.

A published pick receives a timestamp. At kickoff it becomes immutable in Postgres. The season record is the record.

2026 · Week 6

The Pick Board

14 games
Straight-up winners
SEA@DEN
Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDT
Bryan
DEN · LOCKED
Model
SEA · Edge 6/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
HOU@JAX
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM EDT
Bryan
HOU · LOCKED
Model
JAX · Edge 49/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
NO@NYG
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
NO · LOCKED
Model
NYG · Edge 64/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
CAR@PHI
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
CAR · LOCKED
Model
CAR · Edge 62/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
PIT@TB
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
PIT · LOCKED
Model
TB · Edge 15/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
CHI@ATL
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
ATL · LOCKED
Model
ATL · Edge 26/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
BAL@CLE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
BAL · LOCKED
Model
BAL · Edge 47/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
TEN@IND
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
IND · LOCKED
Model
IND · Edge 43/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
NYJ@NE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Bryan
NE · LOCKED
Model
NE · Edge 12/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
ARI@LAR
Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM EDT
Bryan
LAR · LOCKED
Model
LAR · Edge 73/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
LAC@KC
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT
Bryan
KC · LOCKED
Model
KC · Edge 80/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
BUF@LV
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT
Bryan
BUF · LOCKED
Model
BUF · Edge 25/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
DAL@GB★
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM EDT
Bryan
DAL · LOCKED
Model
GB · Edge 46/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
WAS@SF
Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM EDT
Bryan
SF · LOCKED
Model
SF · Edge 73/100
Separation score, not win probability
Result
—
★
Totally unbiased reporting

Cowboys Corner

Bryan is a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan. Rather than pretending that has no effect on the picks, Pick'em measures it. Every time Bryan takes Dallas against the model, the override is logged and scored.

Dallas record
2-3
Bryan overrides
4
Homer tax
+1
Bias index
100/100
Week 6: DAL at GB. Bryan has DAL; the model has GB.

Bias Index = the share of published Cowboys games where the model picked against Dallas and Bryan still chose Dallas. Homer Tax = net wins lost versus the model on those completed overrides.

The experiment

Bryan vs. Model vs. National Experts

Bryan: the final human pick, informed by data and judgment.

Model: a versioned quantitative score with no fan loyalty. Its Edge score measures how far apart the teams grade in the model; it is not a claimed win probability.

National Expert Benchmark: the strongest published straight-up season record in the CBS Sports national expert panel. This is the bar Bryan and the model are chasing, not an average fan baseline. View source ↗

Read the methodology →
Under the hood

Football is the demo. The system is the point.

Pick'em combines data ingestion, scoring logic, model versioning, historical measurement, publishing, and interactive visualization. That same systems thinking is what Crouch Development applies to business operations.